Bitcoin Correction Under $100K Possible Ahead of May 13 CPI Data

After rallying to an intraday high of $105,819, Bitcoin’s price slipped to $102,388 on May 12, raising questions among traders as to whether a broader correction is on the horizon.

While the dip might appear sudden, analysts suggest the pullback may be a short-term, technical sell-off triggered by profit-taking and macro caution ahead of the May 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.

Macroeconomic Pressure Ahead of CPI Print

The CPI report will give traders insight into inflation levels and potentially influence the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. High inflation could signal prolonged rate hikes, increasing pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Given Bitcoin’s recent 9% rally, many traders appear to be de-risking positions ahead of the macro announcement. This kind of preemptive positioning is not unusual in volatile markets where large economic events often drive outsized reactions.

Positive Fundamentals Remain Intact

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s overall momentum remains strongly bullish.

Key bullish fundamentals from the past week:

• US-China Trade Deal Progress: Positive sentiment followed the May 11 trade talks in Switzerland, where a tentative deal was reached.
• Michael Saylor’s Latest Acquisition: Strategy CEO Michael Saylor purchased 13,390 BTC, raising the company’s total holdings to 568,840 BTC.
• Nakamoto Holdings Merger: Healthcare firm KindlyMD surged 600% after merging with Bitcoin-focused Nakamoto Holdings, led by Trump adviser David Bailey.
• Corporate Treasury Momentum: Multiple firms continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, echoing trends seen in April.

These developments show that institutional and corporate adoption of Bitcoin continues to gain traction, even if prices are temporarily pausing.

Glassnode: Signs of Short-Term Consolidation

Onchain analytics firm Glassnode weighed in with supply-side data pointing to a possible cooling period.

According to Glassnode’s supply mapping:

• Long-term holders remain steady, indicating conviction
• Short-term profit-takers may be locking in gains after recent highs
• Exchange inflows have increased slightly, often a precursor to mild corrections

While these metrics don’t suggest a full reversal, they do indicate a likely phase of sideways price action or short-term retracement.

Market Reactions and Sentiment Indicators

Stock Market:

• Dow Jones rallied over 1,000 points on May 12 following the U.S.-China trade announcement.
• This macro optimism didn’t fully carry over to Bitcoin, which suggests crypto-specific factors like overbought conditions are at play.

Social Sentiment:

• BTC-related social engagement remained strong, especially following corporate Bitcoin buys.
• However, sentiment indicators have cooled slightly, possibly reflecting CPI-driven caution.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: What to Watch Next

Short-term:

• Support zone near $98,500 could be tested if the CPI print comes in higher than expected.
• Consolidation between $98K–$104K may play out ahead of clearer inflation data.

Mid-term:

• Breakouts above $106K could target $110K–$115K, especially if CPI data is market-friendly.
• Key to the rally resuming will be continued treasury accumulation and macro easing signals.

Final Thoughts: Don’t Mistake a Dip for a Reversal

Bitcoin’s price retreat under $103K is likely not a sign of long-term weakness. With institutional accumulation ongoing and macro tensions temporarily easing, this correction could be a healthy pause before the next leg higher.

Still, the May 13 CPI report looms large. Traders will be watching closely to see if inflation surprises to the upside—an outcome that could momentarily push BTC below the psychologically important $100,000 level.

Until then, expect choppy price action, cautious positioning, and eyes glued to the macro calendar.