Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sell 400,000 BTC — Is the Bull Run Losing Steam?

Bitcoin’s stronghold of long-term conviction just cracked.
According to data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have sold over 400,000 BTC — roughly $44 billion worth — over the past four weeks, marking one of the largest distribution phases since late 2021.

The aggressive sell-off comes as Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain support above $108,000, after falling nearly 10% from last week’s highs near $120,000.

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Profit-Taking or Panic Selling?

Analysts interpret the data as a classic profit-taking cycle rather than outright capitulation.

“This is textbook cycle behavior,” said James Vell, on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant.
“Long-term holders are taking profits into market strength — they’ve been accumulating for years. The question is whether short-term buyers can absorb this supply.”

On-chain data shows that realized profits by LTHs are at their highest levels since Q1 2024, suggesting that early investors are offloading into strength following Bitcoin’s strong year-to-date rally.

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Key On-Chain Metrics Flash Warning Signs

• Long-Term Holder Supply Change (LTH-SC):
  Down by 400,000 BTC in 30 days — the sharpest decline in 24 months.
• Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR):
  Back above 1.2, indicating holders are realizing significant profits.
• Exchange Netflows:
  Over 160,000 BTC flowed into centralized exchanges last week — a 3-month high.
• Funding Rates:
  Still elevated on major perpetual futures, suggesting over-leverage risk remains high.

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Critical Levels to Watch

Level	Importance	Commentary
$108,000	Current Support	Repeatedly tested — a break could accelerate downside.
$103,500	Next Major Support	Strong cluster of historical volume.
$99,800–$100,000	Psychological Level	A key threshold for bulls; losing it could trigger panic selling.
$92,000	Deep Correction Zone	Long-term Fibonacci support level.

“If Bitcoin loses the $100K handle, we could see a quick trip to the low $90Ks before a bounce,”
said Ali Martinez, senior analyst at BeInCrypto.

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Short-Term Holders Step In

Despite the LTH outflows, short-term holders (STHs) appear to be absorbing some of the supply, according to Santiment data. The number of addresses holding BTC for less than 90 days has risen by 5.6% in two weeks.

This shift suggests retail and speculative investors are still buying the dip, betting on the Fed’s rate easing cycle and renewed ETF inflows.

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ETF Inflows Offer a Safety Net

Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract modest but steady inflows, totaling $412 million last week.
While this is lower than September’s surge, institutional interest remains intact — particularly from BlackRock’s IBIT, which now holds over 820,000 BTC.

“ETFs are offsetting a portion of the LTH sell pressure,”
noted Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.
“Without them, we’d probably be looking at sub-$100K already.”

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Analysts’ BTC Price Forecasts

Analyst	Prediction	Timeframe
Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick)	BTC unlikely to fall below $100K, potential rebound to $135K	Q4 2025
Rex Capital	Correction toward $95K before continuation to $140K	November 2025
CryptoQuant Analysts	Range-bound between $100K–$120K	Next 4 weeks

Market consensus suggests a temporary correction phase, with a potential bounce from $100K or below as the market resets from over-leveraged conditions.

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Bottom Line

The sale of 400,000 BTC by long-term holders is a clear sign that the market has entered a distribution phase, not a capitulation one.
As short-term traders absorb the pressure and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin may experience short-term volatility, but its macro bull trend remains intact.

If BTC holds above $100,000, analysts expect consolidation before another leg higher toward $130,000–$150,000 by year-end.
If it breaks below, however, the psychological damage could extend the correction well into December.

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TL;DR:

• Long-term Bitcoin holders sold 400K BTC in 30 days (≈$44B).
• Exchange inflows rise, signaling increased profit-taking.
• Support levels: $108K → $103K → $100K → $92K.
• Analysts expect a short-term correction before BTC resumes its uptrend.