Bitcoin Nears $100K: Are Long-Term Holders About to Take Profits?
According to Glassnode’s latest “Week Onchain” report, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) — those who’ve held BTC for more than 6 months — are approaching a critical threshold:
- Unrealized profits nearing 350%
- This level has historically triggered major sell-offs
Key Historical Pattern:
“The average LTH begins offloading BTC when their unrealized profits reach ~350%. That number aligns closely with Bitcoin’s $100K price level.”
This isn’t just speculation — it’s backed by data from previous cycles, where profit-taking pressure increased significantly at this level.
Why $99.9K Is the Tipping Point
Glassnode calculates that the average LTH’s BTC cost basis puts their 350% profit level at approximately $99.9K.
That means:
- A push into six-figure territory could be met with a wall of selling
- Sustaining momentum above this level would require huge buy-side demand
On-chain takeaway:
“We can anticipate an uptick in sell-side pressure as the market approaches this zone.”
Bitcoin’s Technicals: Resistance Mounting, Liquidity Imbalanced
BTC/USD surged to $97,500 this week — the highest since February — before facing downward pressure.
Analysts aren’t confident just yet:
- Popular trader TheKingfisher highlighted liquidity imbalances
- Massive long liquidation walls are stacked below $91K
- Very little short-side pressure exists above current prices
Key Quote:
“Upside fuel looks thin for now… High risk for longs near current levels.”
Chart: LTH Unrealized Profit vs. BTC Price Cycles
| Cycle Year | BTC Price at LTH 350% Profit | Market Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | ~$19,000 | Major sell-off |
| 2021 | ~$64,000 | Bull top + correction |
| 2025* | ~$99,900 | TBD |
*Current cycle projection (Glassnode)
Can Bulls Break Through $100K?
Despite profit-taking concerns, Bitcoin is showing strength in reclaiming important price levels:
- The price is now above both the 111-day SMA and the short-term holder (STH) cost basis
- These are critical zones for sustaining bullish momentum
Glassnode noted:
“Price is now attempting to consolidate above these key levels. Holding here increases chances for continuation.”
But failure to hold could revert BTC back into bearish territory, dragging down sentiment and placing many recent buyers into unrealized loss territory again.
What This Means for Bitcoin Traders and Investors
As BTC inches toward $100,000, investors should prepare for a potential profit-taking event, especially from long-term holders with massive gains on the table.
How to Play It Smart:
- Watch for signs of heavy sell-side volume near $99K–$102K
- Use support zones like $91K and $94K for dip-buying opportunities
- Keep an eye on on-chain metrics, especially LTH and STH behavior
- Tighten stop-losses if trading short-term — volatility is likely ahead
Final Thoughts: Will Bitcoin Crack $100K or Crack Under Pressure?
With long-term holders nearing 350% unrealized gains, the $99K–$100K price zone will be a major battleground for Bitcoin.
History tells us that profit-taking is likely, but if demand steps in and absorbs it, BTC could finally sustain six-figure levels.
Will this be the breakout that sticks — or just another bull trap before the next correction?
Only time (and buyer demand) will tell.
