The odds of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 this month have surged sharply following today’s sudden market downturn. Prediction market Polymarket now shows a 55% probability that Bitcoin will break the $80K level before the end of November — the highest reading so far this cycle.

Just 24 hours ago, the probability sat below 25%, highlighting how violent the current sell-off has been and how quickly sentiment has shifted among traders.

Polymarket Traders Flip Bearish After Sharp Sell-Off

After Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $89K earlier today, prediction market bettors aggressively hedged downside risk.

Polymarket data (as of this afternoon):

• Probability BTC breaks below $80K: 55%
• Yesterday’s probability: 23–25%
• Odds of a bounce above $95K: Collapsed to 18%
• Total volume on the market: Surpassed $1.4M

This marks the first time during the 2025 cycle that bearish odds have overtaken bullish ones.

Why Traders Expect BTC to Drop Below $80K

Several major catalysts contributed to the shift:

1. Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate

BlackRock’s IBIT and multiple U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows, totaling nearly $4 billion in November.

2. Heavy long liquidations

Over $2.8 billion in Bitcoin longs were liquidated in just two days, triggering cascading sell pressure.

3. Mt. Gox wallet movements

Nearly $1B in BTC was moved earlier this week, sparking widespread fear of distribution.

4. Cloudflare outage hit major crypto services

Charting, exchanges, and data providers briefly went down — increasing panic across the market.

5. Macro pressure and risk-off flows

Bond yields spiked intraday, and uncertain Fed signals pushed institutional capital back to cash.

Together, these factors created a perfect storm for downside speculation.

Analysts: “$80K is the Final Major Support Before Wider Panic”

Market analysts warn that a breakdown below $80K could trigger:

• Sharp increase in liquidation cascades
• Potential retest of the $72K–$76K zone
• ETF sentiment worsening
• Temporary exit of risk-on capital

However, some traders see deeper dips as a buy-the-fear opportunity given long-term cycle structure.

What Polymarket Predicts Going Forward

Prediction markets — unlike traditional forecasts — reflect real-money sentiment.

Current forward bets show:

• BTC below $85K before December: 68%
• BTC drops below $75K: 32%
• BTC recovers above $95K: Only 18%

This indicates traders now price in continued downward volatility before any recovery rally.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s sudden volatility spike has pushed Polymarket traders to price in a 55% chance BTC breaks below $80,000 in November, up from just 25% a day earlier. With ETF outflows rising, liquidity thinning, and macro sentiment turning defensive, markets are bracing for potentially deeper downside.

Whether Bitcoin actually falls below $80K — or this marks peak fear — will likely be decided in the coming days.