Ethereum Running Out of Time? Analysts Question New ATH Potential in Current Cycle
Ethereum (ETH) wrapped up April down 1.56%, making it the fifth consecutive red month. This matches its worst losing streak since 2018. Despite a recent 5.5% pump breaking the $1,850 level, the macro trend remains shaky.
ETH’s Price Performance at a Glance:
| Month | Monthly Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | $2,280 | -8.4% |
| Jan 2025 | $2,050 | -10.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $1,970 | -3.9% |
| Mar 2025 | $1,920 | -2.5% |
| Apr 2025 | $1,890 | -1.56% |
Transition to Support: Key Levels Flipped
Despite this weakness, ETH turned prior resistance zones into support. The $1,770–$1,820 range held up. However, a new ATH still looks distant, especially with Q1 2025 showing a 45.4% pullback from local highs.
Why May Still Holds Hope
Crypto analyst Carl Runefelt notes that May has historically been ETH’s strongest month, with an average return of 27.31%.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s quarterly performance provides room for optimism:
- Q2 Return Rate: ETH has ended Q2 in the green 7 out of 9 times.
- 2025 Q2 (so far): +2.15%
Historical May Performance (2016–2024)
| Year | ETH Return in May |
|---|---|
| 2017 | +108% |
| 2020 | +10.4% |
| 2021 | +29.2% |
| 2023 | +12.6% |
| Avg | +27.31% |
Analysts Divided on Whether ATH Is Still on the Table
Bull Case – Pattern Resembles BTC 2020
Merlijn The Trader draws parallels between Ethereum today and Bitcoin in 2020. Back then, BTC consolidated at $8K before exploding to $64K. According to him:
“Ethereum is showing the exact same structure: accumulation, compression… explosion loading.”
This could indicate that ETH is building steam before a breakout.
Bear Case – Cycle Too Mature?
Crypto Bullet, however, is more cautious. His technical reading highlights:
- A mid-term bounce may be in the cards.
- Reversal candle spotted at multi-year descending channel mid-line.
- ETH could rally to $2,500–$2,700, but face rejection at $3,000.
He warns this may be a dead cat bounce, not a new ATH trajectory.
Possible Scenarios:
- Breakout Path
- ETH breaks $3,000
- Bull run resumes toward ATH zone
- Rejection Path
- ETH stalls at $2,700
- Market rolls over before a breakout
- ATH delayed until next cycle
So, Will Ethereum Hit a New ATH This Cycle?
It depends on two things: macro market conditions and ETH breaking that $3,000 resistance. If the bullish momentum of May continues, history favors another surge. But if volume fades and BTC takes the spotlight, ETH could remain in consolidation mode well into late 2025.
