XRP Price at Risk of 45% Crash to $1.20 Amid Weak Network Activity
XRP is skating on thin ice as it continues to show bearish signals in both its price action and on-chain fundamentals. Despite reaching a high near $2.14, the cryptocurrency now appears at risk of dropping sharply if key technical levels fail to hold. Recent patterns suggest a potential nosedive toward the $1.20 mark—down nearly 45% from current prices.
XRP Forms Bearish Descending Triangle Pattern
At the heart of XRP’s growing bearish narrative lies a descending triangle pattern on its daily chart—a classic indicator that typically signals a reversal in uptrend momentum.
This pattern, defined by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line, has emerged since XRP’s late-2024 rally. With each bounce, the coin fails to set new highs, squeezing into the corner of this triangle formation. If XRP closes below the triangle’s flat support, the price could crash toward $1.20, mirroring the triangle’s maximum height.
Current Key Levels:
- Resistance: $2.18
- Immediate support: $2.00
- Secondary support: $1.61
- Downside target if support fails: $1.20
Historically, descending triangles that form after a strong uptrend act as bearish reversal setups unless invalidated by an upward breakout.
Technical Indicators Show Weak Bullish Momentum
XRP’s struggle to stay above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), now around $2.18, hints at fading bullish momentum. A break below both the 50-day and the 100-day SMA (at $2.06) would be a strong bearish signal, potentially accelerating a selloff.
Unless XRP stages a breakout above $2.18—which would invalidate the triangle—analysts are warning of a swift fall below the psychological $2.00 barrier.
XRP Ledger Activity Has Dropped Sharply
On-chain fundamentals don’t look much better. The XRP Ledger’s daily active addresses (DAAs) have collapsed dramatically since March.
| Date | Daily Active Addresses (DAAs) |
|---|---|
| March 19, 2025 | 608,000 |
| May 1, 2025 | ~30,000 |
That’s a >95% drop in active addresses—an alarming signal that fewer participants are transacting on the XRP network.
Low address activity often reflects:
- Declining user engagement
- Shrinking liquidity
- Weaker transaction demand
- Diminished investor confidence
Fewer users typically lead to reduced transaction volume, which in turn limits buying pressure—making the token more vulnerable to downward price swings.
Rising Trading Volume, Falling Price: A Bearish Combo
Interestingly, XRP has seen a 30% surge in daily trading volume, now around $2 billion—even as the price declined 1.17% in the last 24 hours.
This divergence between price and volume is often interpreted as:
- Profit-taking by traders anticipating further downside
- Repositioning ahead of a potential breakdown
Crypto analyst Dom notes that a large portion of this increased volume stems from market selling, not buying—a signal that bullish strength is drying up.
Scenario Analysis: What’s Next for XRP?
| Scenario | Target | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish Breakdown | $1.20 | High (if $2.00 fails) |
| Support Holds | $2.00 to $2.18 | Moderate |
| Bullish Breakout | $3.00+ | Low (needs strong reversal and breakout) |
Key Dates to Watch
- Mid-May 2025: Technical setup suggests breakdown could occur by then if support cracks.
- End of Q2 2025: XRP may retest $1.20 unless fundamentals improve dramatically.
Industry Commentary and Comparisons
Crypto sentiment across the board has been mixed in early Q2 2025. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging modest recoveries, XRP’s price action is lagging, in part due to its lack of unique catalysts and reduced developer or institutional activity.
Also, Ripple’s ongoing focus on expanding its cross-border payment ecosystem has not significantly translated into retail investor excitement.
Compared to rivals:
- Solana is seeing strong developer traction.
- Ethereum Layer 2s are dominating DeFi volumes.
- XRP struggles with stagnating user growth and underwhelming trading interest.
What Could Invalidate the Bearish Case?
XRP bulls need to:
- Push price above $2.18 with strong volume
- Reignite network activity, increasing DAAs and transaction count
- Attract new partnerships or positive regulatory news
Without those, XRP is likely to face continued headwinds heading deeper into Q2.
Final Thoughts: A Crucial Moment for XRP
Right now, the odds aren’t in XRP’s favor. Both the technical chart and the on-chain data paint a bearish picture. The descending triangle is close to resolution, and unless bulls reclaim key moving averages and resistance levels, a drop to $1.20 is in the cards.
If you’re an investor or trader, keep a close watch on the $2.00 level—this will likely determine whether XRP holds steady or slips into a deeper correction.
FAQs
Q: What is a descending triangle in crypto charts?
A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern with a flat bottom and descending highs, indicating sellers are gaining strength.
Q: Why has XRP network activity dropped?
Lower active addresses suggest reduced user engagement, potentially due to lack of market catalysts or confidence in price action.
Q: Can XRP still rally in 2025?
Yes, but it would require a breakout above $2.18 and renewed investor demand, possibly from regulatory clarity or Ripple partnerships.
