Bitcoin Metric Flashes ‘Euphoria’ As Price Hits $112.5K — Is The Bull Market Peaking?

Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the spotlight after hitting $112,500, but a critical on-chain metric suggests the market may be entering a classic euphoria phase — a signal that has historically preceded short-term tops.

While long-term holders continue to sit on hefty profits, new entrants and short-term traders are finding it increasingly difficult to secure gains amid tightening liquidity and rising volatility.

Short-Term Holders Struggle To Stay Profitable

Data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio (STH-RPLR) has fallen close to 1.0, indicating that recent buyers are now selling at break-even or slight losses.

In contrast, this same metric hovered around 1.6 to 1.8 during the height of earlier 2025 rallies — a period when short-term traders were booking strong profits.

“When STH-RPLR nears 1.0 while price makes new highs, it means the latest buyers are under pressure,” said analyst Checkmate from Glassnode. “That’s the definition of a market running on euphoria and exhaustion.”

The Euphoria Zone Is Here — Again

The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, a classic measure of overvaluation, has now climbed above 7.5, entering what Glassnode refers to as the “Euphoria/Greed” zone.

Historically, this region has signaled that BTC may be overextended, with market sentiment running ahead of fundamentals. Similar conditions were seen in late 2021 and mid-2017, both times preceding multi-month corrections.

At the same time, the Percentage of Supply in Profit stands near 98%, meaning almost all circulating BTC is profitable — a condition that often leads to higher selling pressure as investors look to lock in gains.

$112.5K — Key Resistance in Focus

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains firmly bullish but faces major resistance between $112,000 and $115,000, where significant sell-side liquidity has formed.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is attempting to reclaim $113,000, with immediate support at $109,500 and $107,800.

If bulls can close above $115,000, analysts believe momentum could quickly carry the price toward $120,000, with the next target zone near $124,500.

However, failure to break this resistance band could trigger another round of liquidations — especially with over $3.2 billion in leveraged long positions currently open across major exchanges.

Long-Term Holders Remain Unfazed

Despite the short-term overheating, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) appear unmoved.
The LTH supply — Bitcoin unmoved for at least 155 days — remains near record highs of 14.9 million BTC, signaling that core investors are holding through volatility.

“Long-term conviction remains extremely strong,” noted on-chain strategist James Check (Checkmate). “What we’re seeing now is a rotation from patient holders to speculative traders — the final stage of a bull phase.”

This pattern mirrors past cycles where long-term holders began distributing into strength, while retail participants and funds entered late in hopes of catching the next leg up.

Market Sentiment: Euphoria Meets Risk

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has reached 88, marking “extreme greed” territory — the highest level since February 2021.
Funding rates across perpetual futures markets have also spiked, with Bitcoin funding averaging +0.18%, suggesting traders are paying a high premium to remain long.

If these conditions persist, analysts warn that a short-term correction toward $105,000 or $102,000 could flush out over-leveraged positions and reset market structure for a healthier uptrend.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin trades around $112.5K, near key resistance.
• Short-term holders are struggling to remain profitable.
• MVRV Z-score above 7.5 signals potential market euphoria.
• Long-term holders still show strong conviction.
• A short-term correction remains possible before continuation higher.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s surge to new highs has reignited the crypto bull narrative, but the rise in euphoria signals caution.
While the broader trend remains constructive, overheated on-chain data and extreme sentiment could trigger a shakeout before the next leg higher.

In past cycles, such phases marked both risk and opportunity — a reminder that euphoria often comes right before the biggest tests of conviction.