Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Could Retest $100,000 Before Resuming Its Upward Trend
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face resistance around the $111,000 level as macroeconomic uncertainty and global risk sentiment weigh on short-term momentum. On Thursday, BTC traded near $110,600, testing a key ascending trendline support that has held since mid-August.
Although the long-term uptrend remains intact, several analysts believe a correction toward $100,000 may be imminent before Bitcoin resumes its next bullish leg toward new all-time highs.
Geopolitical Tensions Add Pressure to Risk Assets
The broader financial markets have turned risk-off this week as geopolitical tensions flare in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Investors have rotated into safe-haven assets such as gold, which recently surged to an all-time high, while equities and crypto assets have shown signs of fatigue.
The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has strengthened modestly, weighing further on Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.
“Whenever global tensions rise, we see temporary outflows from risk-on assets like crypto,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures. “However, such corrections often set the foundation for renewed accumulation.”
Technical Picture: Key Supports and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is clinging to support around $110,000–$111,000, which aligns with the ascending trendline drawn from the August lows.
- Immediate support: $110,000 and $106,800 (50-day EMA)
- Major support zone: $100,000–$102,000
- Resistance: $115,000 and $120,000
If BTC closes below $110,000, traders expect a swift drop toward $102,000, followed by potential tests of the psychological $100,000 level.
“The $100,000 region is a strong technical and psychological support,” noted analyst Michaël van de Poppe. “A retest there could reset overbought indicators and prepare BTC for its next major rally.”
Funding Rates and Derivatives Hint at Cooling Momentum
Data from Coinglass shows that BTC perpetual futures funding rates have eased from record highs, signaling reduced speculative leverage. Open interest has also declined by roughly 8% week-over-week, suggesting some traders are closing positions amid uncertainty.
This cooling in derivatives activity may actually prove constructive, as it resets overly bullish sentiment and reduces the likelihood of cascading liquidations.
“When funding normalizes after a sharp rally, it often precedes a healthier price base,” explained crypto researcher Ali Martinez. “We could see a short-term dip followed by renewed institutional demand.”
Institutional Flows Remain Robust Despite Pullback
Despite the price consolidation, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain strong. According to CoinShares’ latest data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion in inflows last week — one of the largest weekly totals since August.
Institutional players such as BlackRock and Fidelity continue accumulating BTC through their funds, signaling confidence in long-term adoption.
The combination of ETF demand, increasing hash rate, and declining exchange balances all point to a tightening supply dynamic that could amplify Bitcoin’s rebound once selling pressure fades.
Macro Factors: Rate Cut Hopes vs. Inflation Risks
Markets are still digesting mixed economic data from the U.S. Labor Department and Federal Reserve statements. While softening jobs data has boosted expectations for rate cuts later this year, persistent inflation remains a wildcard.
If the Fed confirms its dovish shift during its next policy meeting, liquidity could flood back into risk assets — potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $130,000–$135,000 in Q4.
“Bitcoin thrives when real yields compress,” said Alex Krüger, macro trader. “If the Fed starts cutting aggressively, we could see BTC back above $120K before year-end.”
On-Chain Insights: Accumulation Persists
On-chain analytics from Glassnode show that long-term holders are still in accumulation mode, with supply held by addresses inactive for over a year reaching an all-time high.
Meanwhile, exchange reserves have continued to decline, with less than 2.3 million BTC now sitting on centralized trading platforms — a figure not seen since 2018.
This persistent outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges reflects investor conviction, even as short-term volatility rises.
Outlook: Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Strength
While near-term charts suggest the possibility of a deeper correction toward $100,000, the overall structure of the Bitcoin market remains fundamentally bullish.
Key catalysts — including ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and network growth — continue to reinforce BTC’s position as the world’s leading digital asset.
“Corrections in bull markets are opportunities,” said veteran trader Peter Brandt. “If Bitcoin dips to $100K and holds, it sets the stage for a renewed move toward $140K–$150K.”
Conclusion
Bitcoin may need to retest the $100,000 zone to reset market froth and confirm a solid base before its next surge higher.
Geopolitical tension, shifting monetary policy, and profit-taking could drive short-term volatility — but the underlying trend remains positive. As long as BTC holds above the six-figure threshold, analysts expect the long-term bull market to stay intact, with $130K–$150K still in play for late 2025.
