Crypto Market on Edge as Powell Sets Stage for July Decision

The crypto market just got its most important deadline of the year—and it’s coming in July.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared before Congress this week and delivered a clear, calculated message: the Fed is in “watch and wait” mode. While inflation has cooled from its 2022 peaks, Powell noted that it remains “somewhat elevated,” leaving the central bank with no urgency to cut rates just yet.

For crypto traders, that means one thing: everything now hinges on July’s inflation and employment data.

Why July Could Be the Tipping Point for Crypto

Powell didn’t mince words. He emphasized that the Fed needs to see more concrete signs of sustained progress before making any policy shifts. That effectively places the spotlight on two upcoming economic reports:

12 July – Consumer Price Index (CPI): A key inflation reading
19 July – Non-farm Payrolls Report: Measures employment growth and wage trends

Depending on how these two reports shake out, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could either deliver relief through a rate cut at its 30 July meeting, or tighten the screws further on risk assets like crypto.

And let’s be honest: this summer is already shaping up to be one of the most interest-sensitive seasons in years.

Market Reaction So Far

After Powell’s testimony, short-term bond yields dipped. The two-year Treasury yield fell below 3.81 percent, while the ten-year yield dropped to 4.28 percent—both reaching lows not seen since early May.

The drop in yields, combined with a surprise cease-fire between Iran and Israel, sparked a mild risk-on rally across global markets. Stocks rebounded, and crypto followed closely behind: