Over the past several weeks, Bitcoin’s extreme volatility, massive liquidations, and collapsing ETF inflows have sparked one urgent question across the crypto space:

Is Bitcoin entering a bear market?

With BTC plunging from above $114,000 to the $90,000 range, and probabilities of a drop under $80,000 soaring on Polymarket, traders are understandably nervous. But the answer isn’t as simple as “yes” or “no.”

Let’s break down the real indicators one by one.

1. Price Structure Has Broken Its Uptrend — A Bearish Warning

Bitcoin has decisively broken below:

$110K support
Major trendline from Q1 2024
100-day moving average
Short-term holder cost basis

These breaks have historically preceded mid-cycle corrections of 25–40%.

Current drawdown from ATH: ~31%
Worst January/November in nearly 3 years

So yes — structurally, Bitcoin is temporarily bearish.

2. ETF Flows Are Deeply Negative — First True Red Flag

November brought the worst ETF outflow month in history:

$3.7B outflow, beating previous record
BlackRock’s IBIT alone lost $2.47B
Multi-day streak of red inflows across BTC and ETH ETFs

Historically, ETF behavior signals institutional positioning:

Inflows = accumulation
Outflows = deleveraging + hedging

Right now, the “smart money” is risk-off.

3. Whale Behavior Is Aggressively Bearish

On-chain data confirms heavy selling:

400,000 BTC offloaded by long-term holders in two months
Multiple “100% win-rate whales” flipping to high-leverage shorts
Smart money accounts earning millions betting on downside
Miners increasing selling pressure as hash price drops

Even worse — Tether and stablecoin supply growth has slowed, reducing liquidity.

This is classic late-cycle deleveraging.

4. Derivatives Are in Stress Mode

Key signals:

Funding rates deeply negative
Perpetual open interest wiped out by >$2.8B in liquidations
Backwardation emerging in Bitcoin futures for the first time since mid-2022

Backwardation is extremely rare for BTC — it usually indicates:

✔️ Fear
✔️ Market dysfunction
✔️ Forced selling
✔️ Hedge fund blowouts

This is not bull-market behavior.

5. Macro Pressures Are Intensifying

Bitcoin is trading in a world where:

The Fed may pause QT, but hasn’t yet pivoted
U.S. dollar is strengthening
Risk assets are wobbling
Tech sector is showing signs of overheating (Magnificent 7 skew reversal)
Treasury yields remain elevated

BTC correlates strongly with macro liquidity — and liquidity is tightening again.

**6. But Long-Term Cycle Indicators Are Not Bearish**

This is where things get interesting. Despite short-term destruction:

Bitcoin is still above its 2017 and 2021 cycle highs
Long-term holders still control majority supply
Hashrate remains near ATH
Halving cycle timing resembles mid-cycle corrections from 2016–2017 and 2020–2021
Standard Chartered, Fidelity, and others maintain $150K–$180K targets for 2025

Halving-cycle models still suggest this is not a terminal top.

So… Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?

Short answer: No.

**Real answer: Bitcoin is in a severe mid-cycle correction that feels like a bear market.**

This correction is:

ETF-driven
Leverage-driven
Whales-driven
Macro-driven

…but long-term structural patterns remain intact.

This is NOT a 2022-style collapse.

This is a 2021 double-top style correction, or a 2016 mid-cycle wipeout, before the next expansion phase into 2025.

What Comes Next?

1. $80K is now the key line in the sand

Probability of breaking it this month: 55% (Polymarket)

If BTC falls below $80K, a deeper flush to $72K–$75K is possible.

2. A huge reversal could form once liquidations finish

We are nearing the end of forced sell pressure:

$2.8B liquidations already happened
Futures OI reset
Stablecoins starting to re-enter exchanges
Spot buying slowly improving

3. 2025 is still projected to be the blow-off top year

All historic halving cycles peak 12–18 months after the halving, not 6 months after.

That puts the next major peak between:

March 2025 – September 2025
Price range estimates:
$150K – $220K

Conclusion

Bitcoin is in a harsh, fear-driven correction that has all the characteristics of a mini bear market — but not a full cycle top.
Key long-term models remain bullish, while short-term traders face extreme volatility.

Bottom line:
This is pain… but not the end of the bull cycle.

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