Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Holds Above $93K After 10% Rally Fueled by ETF Inflows & Political Shift

Bitcoin price is holding steady near $93,500 as of Friday, following a strong 10.45% rally that began early in the week. The move was fueled by:

• Massive ETF inflows
• Institutional buying by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet
• A regulatory shift favoring crypto under new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins
• Softer political tone from President Trump on the Fed and China

Record-Breaking Institutional Inflows Into BTC ETFs

According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.68 billion in net inflows by Thursday — their highest weekly intake since mid-December 2024, when BTC first breached $100K.

This wave of demand suggests a renewed institutional conviction, led by:

• MicroStrategy, adding 6,556 BTC for $555.8M
• Metaplanet, acquiring 475 BTC in total this week, now holding 5,000 BTC

“This level of ETF flow is usually a leading indicator for BTC rallies,” noted crypto analyst Rachel Lin.

New SEC Chair Paul Atkins Sworn In – A Boost for Crypto

Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins was officially sworn in on Monday as the 34th SEC Chairman, replacing Gary Gensler.

Atkins has a long-standing pro-crypto stance, known for advocating:

• Clear digital asset classifications
• Innovation-friendly frameworks
• Participation in industry-led initiatives (Token Alliance, Digital Chamber of Commerce)

His appointment could mark a regulatory pivot from Gensler’s aggressive enforcement style to a more transparent and supportive SEC.

Trump Softens Tone on Fed and China – Risk-On Sentiment Returns

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump hinted that:

• He has no plans to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
• China tariffs will be “substantially lower than the 145% proposed”

Markets responded positively:

• U.S. equities rallied
• Crypto rebounded on improved macro clarity

“Bitcoin is decoupling from stocks again. It’s behaving like digital gold with a risk-on twist,” said FXStreet’s Yohay Elam.

Technical Analysis: Will BTC Break $95K or Pull Back to $90K?

Bitcoin broke above the 200-day EMA at $85K early this week and peaked near $94,500. However, it failed to close above March’s high at $95K, leading to sideways consolidation.

Key Levels to Watch:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests bullish momentum is cooling, but hasn’t reversed yet. A break above $95K could trigger a run toward $97K, while a rejection could pull BTC back toward $90K.

BTC/USD Daily Chart Summary

• Current Price: $93,500
• 200-day EMA: $85,000
• RSI (Daily): 66
• MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed
• Trend: Consolidation with upside bias

Bullish Scenario: BTC Clears $95K

If BTC closes above $95K with strong volume, we could see:

• Rally continuation to $97K–$100K
• RSI pushing above 70 (overbought)
• Inflows into BTC ETFs sustaining price discovery

“Strong ETF flow plus favorable politics equals a new BTC cycle,” one Fundstrat analyst wrote Friday.

Bearish Scenario: Profit-Taking to $90K Support

If BTC stalls:

• RSI could decline further toward 60
• Short-term holders may take profits
• Price could drop to $90K, a crucial psychological floor

This would still preserve the broader bullish structure, as long as BTC stays above the 200-day EMA.

Chart: Institutional Accumulation in April 2025

Final Thoughts: Can Bitcoin Maintain Its Momentum?

This week was massively bullish for Bitcoin — from ETF flows to regulatory shifts and reduced geopolitical tension.

Short-term correction or not, the macro backdrop is setting up a favorable Q2 for BTC, with key narrative catalysts:

• Institutional trust is surging
• Pro-crypto leadership is taking charge
• Trump’s softer tone could reduce volatility

If BTC holds above $90K, the path toward $97K and eventually $100K remains in play — with or without short-term dips.